Will ‘The Future’ ‘Remember the Name’?
Ian Machado Garry will face Belal Muhammad in a high-stakes welterweight showdown, and many analysts predict Garry will take the win by decision, but ‘The Future’ will have to remember the name Belal Muhammad. Both fighters share similar metrics, but perhaps the most striking comparison lies in their output. Each averages just over four and a half significant strikes landed per minute and maintains nearly identical average fight times of about 15 minutes. Fans can expect a stand-up war defined by pace, precision, and endurance. What may give Garry the edge is his natural advantage in height and reach. He’s also statistically better at avoiding strikes, absorbing slightly fewer per minute than Muhammad. Over a full three rounds, that difference could be decisive, especially if Muhammad’s volume striking focuses too narrowly on head shots, allowing Garry to control distance and tempo.
Still, Belal Muhammad is no easy opponent to solve. He boasts a stronger takedown average and impressive defensive wrestling, making him a constant threat if the fight hits the mat. A counter against Ian would be effective too, as he is used to keeping the fight primarily standing rather than seeking submissions in ground positions. Ian will also be seeking to mitigate damage because Belal is known for most of his punches being fast and landing on the faces of his opponents. This tenacity that Belal carries when standing even secured his victory against Sean Brady by KO/TKO due to his punches.
For Garry to secure a unanimous decision, he’ll need to assert dominance both standing and on the ground if the bout becomes a grind. He has landed more strikes on average than Belal, and if he does so in both scenarios in the fight, it's very likely he’ll get the unanimous decision he desperately craves to secure his shot at the title. He is even known to diversify his attack areas and is well understood to target the entirety of an opponent, rather than Belal’s approach of focusing on the head and upper body regions. This underdog strategy may play well, too, given that if he can take Belal’s legs away from him, then he can get closer to the body and drive Belal to a point where he’s too boxed in, leaving him vulnerable to takedowns or leg sweeps. This will be a close fight overall and may even further the underdog year that 2025 has brought to the UFC. Hopefully, when the octagon door closes, both ‘The Future’ and ‘Remember the Name’ will have something to prove.
