Youth Meets Experience as Nuggets and Thunder Begin Series
The Denver Nuggets head into Monday’s series opener with little rest, having just completed a seven-game series against the Clippers on Saturday night. In contrast, the Thunder have had over a week off after sweeping the Grizzlies in the first round, giving them plenty of time to recover. The two teams split their regular-season series 2-2 and are 8-8 against each other since the 2021-22 season. Three of the four games were decided by double digits this season, except for Denver’s narrow two-point win in their second meeting. Oklahoma City would love to cruise through another series and rest up for the Western Conference Finals, but everything is pointing to a much closer matchup against the Nuggets.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is set to face his toughest competition in the MVP race as he goes head-to-head with Nikola Jokić in this series. Although Shai is the current favorite, both players averaged career highs in points and assists this season. If Jokić takes control and delivers a dominant stretch of performances, the MVP conversation could shift. While Gilgeous-Alexander has his sights set on the award, his primary goal will be leading the Thunder to their first Conference Finals appearance since 2016. Oklahoma City is built to contain Jokić, with a versatile double-big lineup featuring Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, supported by strong perimeter defenders to check Denver’s guards. With a well-rested team and a home crowd known for its playoff atmosphere, the Thunder have the tools to rattle Denver early.
The Thunder finished the regular season with the league’s best defensive rating at 106.6 and have carried that elite play into the postseason, leading all teams in defensive rating through the first round. They excel across the board, contesting shots, protecting the rim, rebounding, and forcing turnovers, leading the league in steals. However, their first-round sweep didn’t provide much of a test, and they'll need to prove they can execute in close, high-pressure games. On the other side, Denver struggled defensively after the All-Star break, posting a 117.6 defensive rating, 23rd in the league, and finishing the season ranked 21st overall at 115.1. The Nuggets also lack depth, typically relying on a tight six-to-seven-man rotation. If this series stretches to six or seven games, we could start to see some tired legs out of those rotation players at that point.
This is a tough matchup for the Nuggets, made even more difficult by the quick turnaround after their long seven-game series. With Game One just two days later, it’s reasonable to expect Oklahoma City to jump out to a 1-0 lead. With that said, Denver does own the second-best road record in the Western Conference this season, which could prove crucial. They’ll need to steal at least one game in Oklahoma City to keep their chances alive in this series. A more efficient Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who shot just 40% from the field and 25% from three in the first round, would be the key to the Thunder wrapping up this series quickly by taking the first two games at home like they should.
