Can a 2026 Padres All-Star Outfielder Continue His Torrid Stretch?
The 2026 Padres' big bats have failed to be hot at the same time this season; that may have changed entering the second half. The overall season outlook is not fantastic, with a third-place position in the National League West. Beyond the division, their 50-51 record has put the Friars on the outside looking in on the National League Wild Card spot, two games back of the third spot. The Nationals, Cardinals, and Marlins are all in better shape than the Padres at this time. Much of the team’s mid-season failures can be pegged to their offense. For a majority of the season, the Friars ranked last in team OPS; now they have vaulted to 27th overall. The struggles have come from slumping stars, none of whom have gotten as much attention as their high-paid all-star outfielder.
Major Struggles
Fernando Tatis Jr came into 2026 as the Padres' golden goose. The 27-year-old had accrued a laundry list of awards since his debut in 2019. He was a three-time all-star coming off a phenomenal 6.1 WAR season in which he displayed true five-tool talent, smoking 25 home runs to go along with a career-high 32 steals. Even with those great numbers entering 2026, debate surrounded Tatis's power output. The former shortstop is yet to replicate his incredible 2021 power numbers. In just 130 games, the Dominican-born star hit 42 home runs, pacing the National League in the category. However, 2026 was a new low for Tatis’s power output. In an absolutely brutal stretch of play, the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner went 240 plate appearances without hitting a home run. Even with a position swap back to the infield at second base, Tatis continued to search for power. The break finally came against the Nationals with a bomb to left field. Notably, the struggles happened despite Tatis hitting the ball harder than anyone. His consistent 95th-percentile-and-up hard-hit percentage made his power struggles even more confusing. The issues stemmed from an absolute lack of pulled fly balls in the three-time all-star’s game. Every hard-hit ball seemed to be on the ground, resulting in singles and groundouts as opposed to extra bases. The struggle was real, and you would have been hard-pressed to find a major sports media outlet not discussing the home run drought; however, recently, Tatis has put the MLB back on notice.
Return to Dominance
In recent weeks, the Padres' 27-year-old star has swung a wildly hot bat. After 240 plate appearances without a round tripper, the three-time all-star has three home runs in his last four games. Through his last 26 games, Tatis is posting an OPS of .890. Beyond that, he's smoked six home runs in this stretch. Since his initial bomb against the Nationals, he's hitting .305 with an OPS of .863 in 45 games. Past the average, he's stolen 11 bases in this window, bringing his season total to 25, placing him fourth in the MLB in the category. The production is highly sustainable as well. Tatis is finally pulling the ball, the pinnacle of which was an MLB-longest 474-foot home run Tuesday night against the Braves. He’s raised his batting run value to the 73rd percentile while remaining elite defensively at two different positions. The expected slug has risen to the 72nd percentile, with a squared-up percentage rising to the 70th percentile. The launch angle sweet spot percentage still isn't perfect, sitting in the 19th percentile, but the former shortstop has been improving slowly. On the surface, the 27-year-old is returning to form, and under the hood every needle is moving towards increased production. Do not be surprised if Tatis rebounds to a massive degree and finishes with yet another season with over four WAR.
