Which 2026 Padres Slumping Stars Are the Most Integral to Continued Success?
In the early going of 2026, the San Diego Padres have been a pleasant surprise. As of April 23rd, the Friars sit tied for first place in the NL West with a record of 17-8, good for the second-best record in baseball. The team's success has been somewhat shocking, given the underspending in the offseason heading into 2026. Yet, the main area of confusion regarding the success is the severe underperformance of the Padres' stars. Large contracts such as Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Jackson Merill have been massively disappointing through 25 games. The early success is nice, but it’s obvious that if they want to continue to rack up victories, the stars must show up soon.
Slumping Superstar
One of the major Padres talking points this season has been surrounding their $350 million outfielder's inability to hit for power. In 2021, Tatis led the National League with a whopping 42 home runs at shortstop. This season, he has just four total extra-base hits, all doubles. The most frustrating part is that the former shortstop is hitting the ball harder than just about anyone else, ranking in the 99th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Yet despite the hard contact, Tatis has been unable to pull the ball in the air in the slightest degree. The tendency to smoke batted balls straight into the ground or to the opposite field has absolutely tanked his offensive production. The three-time all-star currently has a .632 OPS with a brutal .299 slugging percentage. Tatis will likely figure it out on the offensive side of the ball. However, beyond his offensive production, his defense makes him wildly valuable. In terms of who is most needed in order to continue success, it is not Tatis.
Beyond Sophomore Slump
Despite Merrill being an absolute fan favorite outfielder, the 23-year-old has struggled in the early goings of 2026. He has the best OPS among the three superstars discussed, yet when the best mark is .660, that's not much of an accomplishment. Extra base hits have not been a real issue for the 2024 all-star; instead, it has been consistent contact. Merrill’s OBP sits at just .280, well below the marks he put up in his first two MLB seasons. The underwhelming production stems largely from the fairly poor quality of contact metrics, with an average exit velocity ranking in the 41st percentile, along with a squared up percentage in the fourth percentile. The slow start is disappointing, but similarly to Tatis, it's easy to see Merrill return to form down the line. He is currently in the 73rd percentile in bat speed, an encouraging sight for his future production. The 2024 Silver Slugger Award winner also has the benefit of being five-tool, registering a baserunning value in the 90th percentile to go along with an 81st percentile fielding run value. Even while slumping, Merrill provides excellent value; the Padres can survive a Merrill or Tatis slump longer than they can survive the next star's struggles.
Lacking Veteran Leader
For the past seven seasons, Machado has been the definition of consistent, registering an OPS of at least .780 every season. This streak of strong offensive numbers seems to be somewhat in jeopardy this season. So far, in 77 at-bats, the all-star third baseman has a paltry .182 batting average. Machado has hit just two home runs as well, both on very similar inside pitches. The man who is known for stellar defense has also registered a fielding run value in just the 49th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. What’s somewhat concerning about Machado is the sudden drop in quality of contact. In 2025, the former Oriole was in at least the 81st percentile in every major quality of contact metric other than Launch Angle, Sweet Spot percentage, and Squared Up percentage. In the early going of 2026, those metrics have dropped, most notably his average exit velo. In 2025, the three-time Silver Slugger Award winner was in the 93rd percentile; in 2026, he dropped to the 24th percentile. Out of all three of the Padres major contracts, Machado is the key to success. His veteran leadership, coupled with his immense talent, makes him the absolute heart of the Padres' lineup. If the Padres want to continue to win games deep into the grueling 162-game season, their star third baseman must start to perform.
