Can a 32-Year-Old Fighter Continue His Climb in a New Division?
Joel Alvarez has flown under the radar after his knockout loss to Arman Tsarukyan in 2022. Since then, he has had three impressive finishes. Now moving up in weight because the weight cut to 155 was becoming too much for him, we will see how he fares now in the Welterweight Division. His first matchup in the new weight class is against a pioneer, Vincent Lucque. Will Joel Alvarez continue raising his stock, or will Lucque be too much for him to handle?
Joel Alvarez is a complete fighter who was previously ranked in the Lightweight Division. He is 7-1 in his last eight fights. During his time at 155, he was able to use his size and length to really bother his opponents and pick them apart. Now moving up in weight, that disparity won’t be as apparent, especially in this fight. Lucque is on the back end of his career, but this fight is a lot closer than the odds are saying. Alvarez isn’t going to be able to overwhelm him, and their reach is a lot closer than most of Joel’s fights at Lightweight. On the feet, this fight could go either way, with Lucque always being known for having an iron chin and quick hands. Alvarez has the power advantage, I would say so, depending on the amount of damage Lucque has endured, he may be able to find that shot to finish him. Joel is going to need to march forward like he always does and put Lucque’s back against the fence, and if this fight goes to the ground, even with how good Lucque is, if Kevin Holland was able to submit him, then Joel should have the advantage. If Joel can finish Lucque, that would put the entire Welterweight Division on notice and get him a top ten fight soon.
Vincent Lucque was once someone who looked like he would be fighting for the title in the future. From 2020 to 2021, Lucque had four dominant finishes over high-class athletes and set himself up for a main event fight against Belal Muhammad. Belal went on to become the Welterweight Champion, beating Leon Edwards. Even with how good his BJJ is, Lucques' wrestling has always been a weakness in his game. Joel hasn’t secured a single takedown in his entire career, so Lucque doesn’t need to worry about getting taken down in this fight. As a striker, Lucque should have the advantage on the feet, but with how aggressive Joel is, Lucque can’t wait to get going or look to counter. He will need to get respect early and maybe look to take Alvarez down if he overextends to try to slow him down and wear him down. If he can slow Alvarez down somehow, he will be able to use his cardio to put the pressure on him and try to take the fight over in the later rounds. He will need to be on high alert and on the defensive early in the fight and look to survive the onslaught that is for sure coming his way. His experience could play a huge factor in this fight and could propel him towards a massive upset victory.
Both fighters have similar fighting styles if you break it down. However, even though people may be overlooking Lucque, you can never count him out of any fight. Even if he’s beaten and battered, he could pull a farce choke out of nowhere, or he could land his dangerous left hook on a counter that will knock anyone out in the division. This is a tough first fight for Alvarez in a new weight class, but it could be used as a statement victory if he continues his path of destruction. Whichever way this fight plays out, you're not going to want to miss it or all the other action this Saturday for UFC Brazil with a main card start time of 7:00 p.m. EST.
