Can the Chargers Win the AFC West?

The Chargers can win the AFC West, but it will require both internal improvements and favorable circumstances with their divisional rivals. Right now, at 7–4 and sitting second in the AFC West behind the 9–2 Denver Broncos, the Chargers still have a realistic shot at the AFC West. Their path depends on maximizing Justin Herbert’s leadership, overcoming roster challenges, and capitalizing on potential stumbles by the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders. The Chargers’ season has been a rollercoaster, highlighted by a three-game winning streak that was snapped in a blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. At this point in the year, Justin Herbert has thrown for over 2,600 yards, but the offense has been inconsistent, scoring just six points in their most recent defeat. To win the AFC West, Los Angeles must find an offensive rhythm down the stretch, especially with Ladd McConkey emerging as Herbert’s top target. The offensive line must hold up against tough upcoming opponents, such as the Eagles and Cowboys, while the running game needs to provide balance. If Herbert can elevate his play and the offense avoids slow starts, the Chargers can keep pace with Denver.

Defensively, the Chargers have shown flashes but remain vulnerable, allowing 238 points through 11 games, averaging 21.6 points allowed per game. To close the gap in the division, they must tighten up against explosive offenses, particularly in divisional matchups. Their pass rush has been solid, but the secondary has struggled against top-tier quarterbacks. With games remaining against division rivals, Los Angeles must capitalize on turnovers and limit big plays. If the defense can hold opponents under 20 points in these contests, the Chargers will give themselves a chance to steal wins that matter most.

The Broncos currently hold a two-game lead and look like the team to beat, riding a 9–2 record. For the Chargers to catch them, Denver must stumble in December, especially with a challenging schedule ahead. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have fallen to 6–6 and are fighting just to stay in the playoff race. Kansas City’s struggles give Los Angeles an opening, but the Chargers must win their head-to-head matchup in Week 15 to secure a tiebreaker advantage. The Raiders, at 2–9, are not a threat for the division but could play spoiler if the Chargers overlook them. The Chargers currently hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Chiefs and Broncos, with one game left against each team.

Ultimately, the Chargers’ path to the AFC West crown is narrow but possible. They must win nearly all of their remaining divisional games, hope Denver drops at least two contests, and ensure Kansas City doesn’t rebound late. Herbert’s leadership, Harbaugh’s discipline, and a defense that rises to the occasion are all essential. If those pieces fall into place, Los Angeles could shock the division and claim its first AFC West title in years. Right now, the Chargers are in striking distance, but the margin for error is razor-thin.