Could the Bills Clinch the First Seed in the AFC? Evaluating Buffalo’s Several Playoff Scenarios
The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most dominant teams of this decade. Unfortunately for the diehard fans known as the Bills Mafia, the team has nothing to show for it. With many playoff losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and one to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Bills have yet to reach the Super Bowl this century. However, with regular-season wins over both the Chiefs and the Bengals this year, the Bills have their best chance in many years to win the coveted Lombardi Trophy. These chances don’t come without roadblocks, though, as Buffalo sits as the sixth seed in the current AFC Playoff picture. We’ll take a look at the Bills' chances across a multitude of playoff scenarios, as well as how they can achieve each outcome.
Playoff Berth
According to ESPN, the Bills have a 97% chance to make the playoffs, tied for the fourth-highest percentage with the Jacksonville Jaguars. These numbers put Buffalo ahead of teams like the Chargers, Steelers, and Texans despite being lower-seeded than Los Angeles and Pittsburgh and losing to Houston. According to FanDuel, the Bills also have the highest odds among all AFC teams to win the Super Bowl at +850. Knowing that both Vegas and the mathematicians are on the Bills’ side, what do they need to do to clinch a playoff spot?
How They Can Clinch
If the Bills lose out, they could still clinch a playoff spot, but they would need the Indianapolis Colts, who just acquired 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers, to lose out too. Also, they would need the Dolphins to lose at least two of their final four games since they would have the tiebreaker over the Bills in the division per this scenario. Then, Buffalo would need either the Ravens or Steelers, whoever ends up being the runner-up in the AFC North, to lose their eighth game and the Chiefs to lose at least one of their final four games since the Bills have the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. Obviously, this would be a lot easier if the Bills just won one more game because that immediately eliminates the Chiefs, Steelers, and Ravens from being a higher Wild Card seed than them, no matter how the season finishes, but it’s fun to see the different avenues that a 9-8 Bills team could use to earn a playoff berth.
Division Title
Surely Patriots fans are feeling disrespected after seeing the odds in the paragraph above. They’ve led the AFC East since Week Six and haven’t given the lead back since. However, there is still a chance for the Bills to take home their sixth consecutive divisional crown. After all, the Bills remained division champions after starting out 6-6 and trailing an 8-3 Dolphins team back in 2023.
How Buffalo Can Retain the AFC East Crown
The most important game in this scenario is a victory this Sunday. If the Bills lose that game, then the Patriots will claim their first AFC East Championship since 2019, but even a win on Sunday shows a long shot for Buffalo to earn a home playoff game. Assuming the Bills win this week means that they will be 10-4, while New England would sit at 11-3, while still leading the division and holding a better divisional record than Buffalo. The slim chance that the Bills win the division at 11-6 could happen, but that would require the Patriots to lose all of their remaining games. In this scenario, even if Buffalo’s only win in the last few games is against the Eagles, an NFC opponent, then the Bills would still win the division since the Patriots losing out would mean that the Patriots would go 6-6 in the conference while the Bills would have at least seven AFC wins. What if the Patriots don’t lose out, though? That makes things tougher on the Bills’ chances, but it could still be done since a 12-5 or 13-4 Patriots team with a loss to either the Jets in Week 17 or the Dolphins in Week 18 could still earn Buffalo an AFC East title.
First Seed in the AFC
The thing that the top teams in the league fight for every season is the essential extra week of rest going into the playoffs. Ever since 2020, the Bye Week has become harder to come by since the NFL went from 12 to 14 teams making the playoffs, reducing the total number of teams with bye weeks from four to two. Since then, the Bills have finished as the second seed four times, playing through Wild Card weekend and outscoring their opponents by a score of 170-96 since the start of the decade. According to ESPN, the Bills have a four percent chance to earn a Bye Week, showing that though their playoff chances are high, you need both luck and skill on your side to secure the first seed in the AFC.
Buffalo’s Chances at the First Seed
The first question is: do the Bills need to win out? Technically speaking, no, but it would make their path a lot easier to do so. As mentioned before, Buffalo would need to defeat the Patriots on Sunday to secure their chance of winning the division. The easiest way to clinch the one seed would be to win out, but let’s take a look at how an 11-6 Bills team could slither their way into getting a bye, which would be the first time since 2002 that an 11-win team secured the one seed. Since it’s already been established that the Patriots losing out wins the Bills the division, we’ll continue with that scenario, but we need the Broncos, the other 11-win team, to lose out too. This hypothetical gets even weirder because Denver’s last game of the season is against the Chargers, who already have nine wins under their belt, along with seven conference wins to Buffalo’s six. Also, the Chargers play the Texans, who sit at eight wins and hold a head-to-head victory over Buffalo, meaning that the only way that Buffalo gets a higher seed than either of those teams at 11-6 is if LA and Houston finish 10-7 or worse. Even in their current situation, they can clinch the first seed, but the most realistic opportunity for that is by winning out and going 13-4, since there are already two other teams at 11 wins.
