Does the Padres All-Star Closer Have a Real Shot at National League Cy Young Award in 2026?
The San Diego Padres are off to a hot start in 2026, sitting at 15-7, just one game behind the division rival Los Angeles Dodgers. Hot starts bring eyes to a team, but attention is also garnered when you have the best pitcher on the face of the earth saving games. Mason Miller is off to a historically hot start. The 27-year-old is the face of the Padres' "super bullpen," and his insane numbers have gained him nationwide recognition. The sheer dominance raises the question: Can this electric reliever secure a Cy Young Award?
The Case
So far this season, Miller has yet to surrender a single run; in fact, he has not even come close. In 11.1 innings of work, the right-handed reliever has surrendered just two hits, both weakly hit singles by Luis Arraez and Yoán Moncada. The flamethrower's baseball savant page absolutely jumps off the page. He is in the 100th percentile of expected ERA, expected batting average, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and average fastball velocity. That average fastball velocity sits at an eye-popping 101.4 miles per hour. The strikeout percentage is just as ridiculous, sitting at 71.1 percent. The Pittsburgh native's slider is by far one of the best pitches in baseball as well, with a run value of six already in 2026. Strikeouts are and have been Miller's bread and butter; the visual experience of watching him is truly one of a kind. There is no other pitcher in the MLB, or likely any global league, who has been harder to hit than the former Athletic over the past month, but of course that raises the question of sustainability. It's obvious that the 2024 all-star is eventually going to give up a run, but it is truly believable to witness him surrender under 10 runs all year. That hypothetical run-preventing ability, coupled with the strikeout potential, is where his Cy Young Award odds shoot up.
The Challenge
However, even if Miller continues his torrid statistical pace, reliever Cy Young Award winners are exceptionally difficult to come by. For comparison's sake, the last reliever to finish in the top three of Cy Young Award voting was Emmanuel Clase in 2024. Clase had a season for the ages in terms of run prevention, allowing just five earned runs in 74.1 innings. The former Ranger racked up 4.4 WAR as a closer, a mark that Miller is on pace to break, collecting 0.8 WAR already in 2026. Yet Clase's top-three finish had the benefit of a weak class around him. Other than the eventual winner, Tarik Skubal, no other pitcher's statistics truly jumped off the page. Miller's National League version of Skubal is 2025 Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes. Getting past Skenes in voting is a tall task for any pitcher, let alone a reliever. The last reliever to outright win a Cy Young Award displays a similar reliance upon weak numbers from premier starters as well. In 2003, Dodgers closer Eric Gagné became the most recent non-starting pitcher to win a Cy Young Award. He did so in large part thanks to his perfect 55-55 mark on save opportunities while striking out 137 batters in 82.1 innings. Beyond the numbers, Gagné was flanked by relatively pedestrian performances from his competition, with Mark Prior's 2.43 ERA in 211.1 innings being his main competition. For Miller to secure the first Cy Young Award as a reliever in 23 years, he must be given a perfect storm of outcomes. Those outcomes bank on Skenes, Cristopher Sánchez, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto faltering, while Miller continues to be perfect in run prevention, save opportunities, and strikeout numbers. The world has some faith as well, with the Padres' closer currently being given the fifth-best odds to win the Cy Young Award by ESPN; only time will tell if he can climb those odds.
