Has the Padres 27-Year-Old Star Outfielder Finally Turned a Corner in 2026?
Discussion and confusion have surrounded the Padres throughout the young 2026 season. Despite a current second-place standing in the National League West, the team is in the thick of a brutal 10-game stretch. In their last 10 contests, the Friars are 3-7, with six of their losses being within three runs. The pitching staff has held as true as possible against stellar lineups like the Phillies and Athletics, yet the offense continues to be egregiously terrible. Out of all 30 MLB teams, the Padres rank last in team batting average with a .218 clip. In terms of pop, their .363 team slugging percentage is second-worst in the MLB. The team is lacking an offensive identity, being carried by their freshly extended ace, Michael King, and their aptly named “super bullpen.” Among the most concerning season-to-season fall-offs in the batter's box is superstar Fernando Tatis Jr, but recent performance and underlying metrics reveal a long-awaited return to form.
Prior Sucess
Entering 2026, Tatis was largely deemed the best player on the San Diego Padres. The Dominican-born superstar broke into the MLB as a shortstop in 2019, putting up monster numbers at just 20 years old. In the following COVID-19-shortened season, he took strides defensively while continuing to put up incredible offensive numbers. Then came 2021, the peak of Tatis’s career to this point. 42 home runs, 6.6 WAR, and an OPS of .975, all in just 130 games. Over these three seasons, his 162-game averages put him at eight WAR with 48.5 home runs. Tatis missed all of 2022 due to a wrist injury and a PED suspension that carried over into 2023. The former shortstop also underwent shoulder surgery during this time frame, a possible reason for his drop in power in recent seasons. However, when he returned, he swapped positions and instantly won a Platinum Glove Award in right field, although he also took a step back offensively. The 2024 and 2025 seasons were similar, with stellar defense and great, but not incredible, offensive production. There were no signs of regression entering 2026, but as the season started, the Padres' superstar entirely forgot how to hit for extra bases.
Broken Swing to Bounce-Back
To start 2026, it took the man who hit 42 home runs in 130 games 239 plate appearances to hit his first home run of the season. Beyond strictly homers, Tatis was struggling to rope any extra-base hits. Much of the struggles stemmed from the 27-year-old's inability to pull the ball in the air, the best recipe for power. Instead of fly balls, the two-time Gold Glove Award winner was married to hard-hit ground balls to the opposite field. As a result, his batting average never dropped to a violent degree, just his slugging percentage. Visible frustration followed, but in recent games, the three-time all-star has flashed his signature grin and energy. In his last 31 plate appearances dating back to May 24th, Tatis is batting .448 with an OPS of 1.070. Most importantly, the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner has two incredibly hard-hit extra-base hits, including a 451-foot home run. Baseball Savant reveals his 94th percentile hard-hit percentage. That, coupled with an expected weighted on-base average in the 71st percentile, gives a positive outlook on the rest of the 2026 season. Although it may feel as if the sky has fallen, Tatis is still very capable of stringing together a very solid 2026. To fully bring the rest of the year together, the right fielder must also improve his base running to go along with the jump in offensive production. As of now, the former shortstop ranks in the 13th percentile in base running value despite being in the 90th percentile in spring-speed and holding 14 stolen bases. It stems largely from focus errors, such as pickoffs and an abundance of caught stealings. 2026 has been brutal, but moving forward, it is easy to see another 25 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and an elite defense season from Tatis.
