How Has the Padres Freshly Extended Ace Performed in 2026?
The 2026 iteration of the San Diego Padres has been an interesting display of how to win baseball games in the most confusing ways possible. The team's offensive identity is currently defined by its slumping stars, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill all currently posting OPS’s below .700. The struggles aren't reserved for the big contracts either. Lack of success from team role players has resulted in the second-worst team OPS in the entire MLB, only beating out the reeling New York Mets. Their .654 OPS mark questions the sustainability of their hot start. Beyond the offensive struggles, the pitching staff has been fairly mediocre outside of the bullpen, ranking 14th in team ERA. Despite all the struggles, sitting at 32-24, the Padres have a real shot at a playoff push, and the success of their questionable rotation resides on the back of Michael King.
Extension:
King arrived in San Diego as the feature piece of the massive 2024 Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees. To that point, he was a hybrid starter and reliever who had found great success courtesy of his stellar offspeed offerings. However, the Padres turned the 31-year-old into a full-time starter. Since then, the former Yankee has refused to look back, becoming a premier starter in the loaded National League. King earned 4.1 pitching WAR in his initial 2024, posting an ERA of 2.95 in 173.2 innings for the playoff-bound Padres. It was strikeout galore as well, racking up 201. As a result, he earned Cy Young Award votes for the first time in his career, finishing seventh in voting. Following his stellar 2024, the right-hander was plagued with injuries in 2025, making just 15 starts. In those starts, the 31-year-old posted a 3.44 ERA in 73.1 innings, solid, yet a step back from 2024’s dominance. Despite missing starts, the Padres front office made a great decision to extend King, handing him a three-year, $75 million deal with opt-outs in both 2026 and 2027.
Projection:
Through 2026, King has kept the Padres rotation afloat, and Baseball Savant suggests the 31-year-old isn't slowing down anytime soon. Through 11 starts, the former reliever has earned 1.8 pitching WAR, already more than his 1.2 mark in 2025. The WAR has come off the back of a 2.76 ERA through 62 innings of work. 63 strikeouts have followed the innings, giving King a strikeout percentage in the 71st percentile. The Padres ace is coming off his worst start of 2026, giving up four in 3.2 innings against the Athletics, but underlying metrics reveal the start is just a bump in the road. According to Baseball Savant, King features some of the best offspeed options in the MLB, with an offspeed run value in the 93rd percentile. Notably, the 31-year-old’s changeup sports a whiff percentage of 31.3. Couple that with a biting sweeper that looks like a wiffleball pitch and a four-seam fastball with a whiff percentage of 34.8, and you have a recipe for making hitters look foolish. The former Yankee has also done an incredible job at limiting hard contact, carrying an average exit velocity allowed in the 87th percentile. For perspective, Paul Skenes is in the 80th percentile of the same category. King’s overall pitching run value ranks in the 91st percentile, but it’s easy to see the right-hander move into the upper echelon of MLB starters within the upcoming weeks. The Padres' rotation has been frustrating, but King has been and will continue to be the shining star of the Friars' rotation.
