Is NIL Killing Cinderella Stories in the NCAA Tournament?

March Madness is in full swing. The tournament is a day away from kicking off the Sweet Sixteen, and there is a glaring problem with the remaining field. Every team left is from a power conference, again. Upsets in tournament play are still common, as we have seen this year, but are Cinderella stories in the big dance truly gone?

NIL Gone Wrong?

The easiest black sheep in this equation is the rise of the NIL. NIL: Name, Image, and Likeness provides student-athletes the opportunity to profit from endorsements. This has allowed star players to shop the market and see their true value in the offseason. Great for the student, but terrible for mid-majors. The collective funding for a power conference school is just under $10 million, according to a recent study by the NCAA. What does this mean? This means any breakout star at a smaller school is as good as gone when the season is over. This funding gap essentially takes the wind out of mid-major programs, making it almost impossible to keep up with superior conferences. No one, athlete or not, is going to pass on a six-figure or more deal. 

One of the beauties of a mid-major, or just college basketball in general, was the ability to develop a roster over four years. Fans get to build a real attachment and bond with a team, while coaches can see their vision fully develop. This is no longer the case. Coaches now have to claw at pieces over the offseason to put together a roster. As more talent is being flushed to power five schools, staying competitive is harder than ever at any level of college sports.

NIL is a double-edged sword. Is there a positive from NIL? Sure, players are finally seeing profit for their labor. It is a full-time job, and for many years, players watched their university make hand over fist from their hard work. Seeing people get paid is never a bad thing. The NCAA is also seeing players have extended college careers because of the money available to them. Instead of leaving early to the pros to maximize their profits, players are now seeing those dollars at the college level. While fun for the fan, the length of eligibility is another concerning issue for a different day. 

Super Conferences

The introduction of super conferences plays a major role in the decrease of upset runs. Conference realignment is a silent killer for lower-level teams. In a more recent phenomenon, power conferences are poaching the strongest programs from their weaker counterparts. The Big East snagged Xavier, Butler, and Creighton in 2013, and more recently, the American Conference lost four schools, UCF, Cincinnati, SMU, and Houston, all to power five conferences. 

There will continue to be a growing, uneven playing field. More conferences are focused on maximizing profit and protecting their schools through realignment. As leagues turn to survival, they slowly deteriorate. In turn, the automatic bids from these conferences are much weaker opponents. The playing field is extremely top-heavy as a result.

How does this impact Cinderella runs?

These factors, like it or not, have impacted the upset watch in recent March Madness tournaments. This year, there is only one double-digit seed left in the field, with the 11th seed Texas taking on the second seed Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen. Outside of the Longhorns and an exciting two games from High Point University, choosing chalk has been the way to go this March. The average margin of victory for the Round of 64 this year was 17.4 points, which marks the highest disparity since the tournament expanded in 1985. Let’s be honest, most of the double-digit seeds looked significantly out of place. 

Another notable factor has been the decline in the quality of mid-major teams according to the KenPom rankings. Just four years ago, the average KenPom rankings for lower seeds were 140th for a 15 seed, 134th for a 14 seed, 83rd for a 13 seed, and 76th for a 12 seed. Things look a little different today. A 15 seed is around 180th, a 14 seed is around 142nd, a 13 seed average is 113th, and a 12 seed is 76th. There is a clear decline in talent level as the college sports world drastically changes. 

Since 2021-2022, when NIL was first introduced, there has been around a 60% decrease in non-power conference regular-season wins over power conferences. The upset is not just becoming endangered in March, but also throughout the entirety of the college basketball season. The widening talent gap makes it much more difficult for mid-majors to schedule games against elite schools. Getting upset by a weaker school early in the season is seen as too much of a risk and, in turn, takes opportunity away from the lesser conference. 

This tournament has also hinted at another disturbing trend. The 2026 NCAA Tournament is the second straight year that seeds 13-16 were held winless in the Round of 64. From 2008-2024, a winless bottom seed was only seen twice. While it is early to call this a trend, it certainly is not moving in the correct direction.

March Madness is known for its unbelievable upsets. The David-versus-Goliath storylines instantly grab fans' attention. Sadly, this is not a common theme in today's NCAA Tournament. Ever since the establishment of NIL, smaller schools have taken the brunt of the impact. Losing out on players and money, mid-majors have been left to fight for survival as the power conferences grow even stronger. While Cinderellas will never go extinct, the longer players go searching for money, the more trouble lower-level conferences will find themselves in.