Is the Padres 2026 Bullpen Still an Elite Unit?
We are very rapidly approaching the midway point of the 2026 MLB season. With just 35 days standing in the way of this year's iteration of the All-Star Game, struggling teams are starting to break a sweat. One of those teams is the San Diego Padres, a squad that started red-hot, only to violently collapse as the weather has gotten warmer. Despite recent victories over the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds, the Padres are 3-7 in their last 10, spearheaded by the worst offense in baseball. Entering the 2026 season, it was largely agreed that San Diego’s keys to success would rest upon their core offensive stars and their aptly named “super bullpen.” To this point, the offensive stars have turned into slumping stars, all suffering career slumps at the same time, but the bullpen has been a different story.
Cohesive Unit
As of June 9th, the Padres' bullpen ERA ranks fifth in MLB and second in the National League, behind only the Atlanta Braves. The Braves currently sport the best record in baseball, sitting atop the National League East with a 45-21 mark. The Padres come in at 34-31, good for the 12th-best record in MLB and not sufficient for a playoff spot, incredible considering their earlier competition with the Braves and Dodgers for the best record in the MLB. Although the recent struggles can not be blamed on the top-five bullpen. The Padres feature plenty of notable arms in the bullpen. Jeremiah Estrada has had a tumultuous start to 2026, landing on the injured list multiple times, yet he has remained an excellent relief arm. Estrada currently sports a 3.48 ERA and a strikeout rate per nine of 10. His offspeed offerings have remained deadly, placing Estrada in the 85th percentile of offspeed run value, but the primary concern is a dip in fastball velocity. Although the 27-year-old has improved in recent weeks before landing on the injured list, his average fastball velocity has fallen to the 71st percentile; it was in the 94th percentile last season. Despite this, once Estrada returns from his knee injury, he will likely continue to improve upon that velocity and remain one of the best arms in baseball. Fellow 2025 stand-out Adrián Morejón is also suffering from some down numbers, yet his underlying metrics reveal an immense amount of bad luck linked to them. Thus far, the former starter has posted an ERA of 4.36, a far cry from his 2.08 mark in 2025. One look at the left-handers' Baseball Savant page reveals the dominance on the horizon. Morejón is in the 73rd percentile or higher in every major category. Notably, the 27-year-old ranks in the 99th percentile in both average fastball velocity and ground ball percentage. Mix that with a 97th percentile chase percentage, a 94th percentile average exit velocity allowed, and you have a recipe for a massive bounceback. Morejón will be back and better than ever in recent weeks.
Under Appreciated Studs
Despite the struggles surrounding two of the Padres' best relief arms, some underrated and downright disliked members of the bullpen have stepped up. 2024 free agent signing Yuki Matsui has posted an ERA of 1.45 in 18.2 innings of work thus far. The stretch is a nice breath of fresh air after back-to-back seasons registering an ERA above 3.70. Despite the great surface-level numbers, Matsui’s success may not be truly sustainable, as made evident by his 3.97 fielding-independent pitching. In a very similar boat is Wandy Peralta, another left-handed relief arm. Peralta has posted a 2.37 ERA in 30.1 innings this season, which is extremely solid, though he does so in an interesting way. The former Yankee has registered a strikeout percentage in the ninth percentile to this point, but has found success in his 85th percentile ground ball rate. This leads to likely regression, but for the time being, Peralta has been key to keeping the Padres afloat. The last of the underappreciated pieces is Venezuelan-born flamethrower, Bradgley Rodriguez. Rodriguez has earned 0.7 pitching WAR in 30.1 innings of work, thanks to his awesome 2.08 ERA. The right-hander is just 22 years old, yet ranks in the 93rd percentile for average fastball velocity and the 95th percentile for expected ERA. With stellar numbers at such a young age, the sky is the limit for Rodriguez.
Best in the Business
When discussing the Padres bullpen, two names instantly demand respect from the rest of the MLB. The first is veteran right-hander Jason Adam. In 2025, Adam earned an all-star selection with a 1.93 ERA over 65.1 innings. His season was sadly cut short by a brutal quad injury, but he has picked up right where he left off in 2026, posting a 1.57 ERA over 23 innings. The strikeouts are down to just 16, but his 94th percentile chase rate suggests they are likely on the way. If Adam continues to pitch as he has, 2026 will be the right-hander's third year in a row posting an ERA below 2.00. Adam is great, but the Padres' full-time closer is truly one of a kind. Mason Miller has been untouchable through 2026. The right-hander is currently 18 for 18 on saves with a 0.98 ERA and a strikeout per nine rate of 17.6. His Baseball Savant page reveals nothing but pure dominance. The former Athletic is in the 100th percentile of eight separate pitching categories. Most revealing is his .108 expected batting average against. That's likely due to his 100th percentile whiff and strikeout percentage. The existence of Miller and the subsequent arm talent leading up to him firmly places the Padres bullpen in the upper echelon of relief groups. Although some arms may be struggling, they are due for positive regression, meaning that this San Diego bullpen is only going to get better as their best arms return to form. The only fear of regression is if the offense remains anemic, leading to overwork for this electric bullpen.
