Is the Rams Quarterback on an MVP Trajectory?

Despite a disappointing loss to their division rivals, the 49ers, on Thursday Night Football in Week Five, it is undeniable that the Rams have gotten off to a strong start in the NFL season. Sitting at 3-2 with two preventable losses in one-score games is an accomplishment, even if it stings a ton. While many of the Rams’ tertiary pieces have received praise on this website for getting the Rams to this point, it is time to focus on the linchpin of the whole team, Matthew Stafford. The Rams’ quarterback has gotten off to an incredible start to the year and is the reason that the receiving duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams has been so lethal. While hearing Stafford’s name in the MVP conversation may be a surprise to some, especially on a team with two losses, he has made a legitimate case for himself through five weeks and could very well continue this pace.

​So far through five games, Stafford leads the league in total passing yards with 1503, 147 yards ahead of Dak Prescott in second place with 1,356 yards. Stafford is also second in passing touchdowns at 11 total, only one behind Jared Goff at 12. The only real mark on Stafford has been a handful of turnovers, with two interceptions and three fumbles. However, only one of the fumbles was recovered by the other team, and that fumble could easily be attributed to Blake Corum instead of Stafford, as it was a low toss that bounced off Corum’s hands in the backfield. Also, technically working against Stafford is the fact that he is a pretty immobile quarterback. That title fails to highlight how well Stafford can be an elite pocket passer, moving around the pocket to evade sacks as well as having the cognitive ability and the physical toughness to make the quick decision to air it out to a receiver, even when taking a brutal hit.  In both games that the Rams lost, Stafford was on the verge of a game-winning drive that stalled out when the ball was taken out of Stafford’s hands. If the Rams had won one of those games, the argument for Stafford being MVP would be much easier. That being said, Stafford already has an iconic game-winning drive this year with the 88-yard bomb to Tutu Atwell, and the argument for him at the top of the league is still there.

​While Stafford has played well, in most years it would be difficult to argue for him to be the MVP since the top of the league is so strong. It is no secret that the MVP is a quarterback award, and the top quarterbacks of the league have been well established. Between Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, five of the last seven  MVPs are accounted for, and before this season, there was no reason to doubt that those three would continue their dominance. Outside of the big three, Joe Burrow seemed to be knocking on the door of his first MVP, with an amazing 2024 campaign. Jalen Hurts was also coming off a Super Bowl win and had expectations to continue to be dominant. Through five weeks, the narrative surrounding most of these players has completely shifted, allowing other players to throw their hat into the MVP conversation.

​Joe Burrow got hurt in Week Two and will miss most of the season with the injury, effectively taking him out of the conversation. Despite winning games, the Eagles' offense as a whole has looked sloppy with a new offensive coordinator, and they have some kinks to work out before Hurts can rise in the MVP ranks. Lamar Jackson has been playing well, but lost some close games against some good teams and now has a QB record of 1-3 this season. Jackson will have to wait to rectify that problem, as a hamstring injury kept him out of Week Five and will keep him out against the Rams in Week Six. If the Ravens lose to the Rams in his absence, the Ravens will fall to a brutal 1-5, which will be incredibly difficult for Jackson to climb his way out of, even while being excellent. Mahomes is a similar story as the Chiefs have gotten off to a rough start as well. The offense as a whole has been pretty good, and Mahomes has been dicing up defenses with his feet and, after the return of Xavier Worthy, through the air. Mahomes and the Chiefs still have the opportunity to rectify a slow start, and it could even be argued that this is likely, as Mahomes is second in Vegas odds to win the award. However, through five weeks, the Mahomes for MVP argument is not quite there.

​As of right now, Josh Allen is looking to repeat his 2024 MVP and is the odds-on favorite to win. The Bills are 4-1, and this has largely been because of the Allen-led offense. In the absence of Jackson, Burrow, and Hurts at the top of the MVP odds, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and Justin Herbert round out the three through seven spots, with Stafford tied with Love for fourth. Despite Stafford’s storied career, he has rarely been the recipient of many accolades. He only has two Pro Bowl appearances under his belt in 2014 and 2023, and has only been in the top eight in MVP voting once in 2023. This year could very easily be the year that changes. Stafford tends to be a streaky quarterback. In his first year in Los Angeles in 2021, Stafford had a similar start throwing to Cooper Kupp, where both players had arguments for MVP halfway through the year. That fizzled out during the Rams’ infamous “No Win November,” where Stafford played four abysmal games and played himself out of the conversation. This could very well happen again, and this likely accounts for Stafford not being higher in MVP odds despite his strong start this year. However, that doesn’t change the fact that Stafford has played at an MVP level thus far and could very well continue to do so. He has set himself on an MVP trajectory and deserves praise for what he has done so far this year.