Just How Good of a Season Is the 2026 Padres Closer Having?
It is officially trade deadline season. That time of the year that makes or breaks contending teams while also contributing to the devastating cycle of mediocrity for others. The trade deadline is stressful for all teams, but for Padres fans, it’s something else. Their longtime general manager A.J. Preller has been by far the most aggressive general manager in baseball at nearly every deadline, and it has not always worked out. Preller has collected a laundry list of former Padres who have become stars. This deadline feels different than previous ones; as opposed to a squad seemingly destined for a third straight postseason appearance, the 2026 Padres are on the outside looking in with questions arising particularly around the pitching staff and their 31-year-old ace. However, last year, they swung a move with the Athletics to acquire one of the most electric arms in the game in a costly trade; now they approach the deadline with a chance of flipping that very same arm.
Breakout and Swap
Last season, Mason Miller donned the brown and gold for the first time, but his production has always been premier. Miller made his debut with the Athletics in 2023 as a hybrid starter and reliever. He struggled yet displayed some potential with an average fastball velocity of 98.3. The Athletics liked what they saw out of the bullpen and converted the 25-year-old to a full-time reliever. He instantly responded, earning an all-star nod and a fourth-place American League Rookie Of The Year Award placement. The dominance that came to be accepted as normal showed itself in 104 strikeouts in just 65 innings pitched. The non-contending Athletics limited him to just 28 saves. Still, Miller officially made himself known with an exceptional season that placed him in the 92nd percentile for pitching run value according to Baseball Savant. 2025 started shaky with the Athletics, pitching to a 3.76 first-half ERA, yet when the trade deadline came, the Padres called. Although it took their top prospect, the Friars acquired the flame-thrower, and he responded with a 0.77 ERA in 23.1 innings.
Complete Dominance
Those dominant 23.2 innings in 2025 were just a taste for the Padres fans. In 2026, Miller assumed the closer role and has not looked human since. The 27-year-old started his season with an absurd 34.2-inning scoreless streak dating back to 2025. In that span, he was perfect on saves, a mark he still carries as we start the second half. Miller is three saves away from tying his career high of 28 with a perfect 25-25 record as of July 23rd. The Pittsburgh native became the Padres' lone all-star in the first half, and it's easy to see why. In his 41.2 innings, he has an absurd 481 ERA+, a statistic in which 100 is league average. The right-hander's standard ERA is a minuscule 0.86, a mark that is made even more insane by his 0.51 FIP, proving he is even better than his surface numbers suggest. The love from underlying metrics stems mainly from his absurd strikeout rate of 16.8 per nine. One look at the two-time all-star’s Baseball Savant page reveals pure red, with six separate 100th percentile rankings. Most notable are his 100th percentile expected ERA and 100th percentile strikeout percentage, at 48.8%. Beyond the ridiculous strikeout numbers is an absolute refusal to allow hard contact, with a 98th percentile average exit velocity allowed and a 100th percentile hard hit allowed percentage. His unhittable fastball has an average exit velocity of 101.3, an absurd number that, of course, places him in the 100th percentile of average fastball velocity. Miller is one of, if not the best, pitchers on the face of the planet at the moment. The former Athletic's dominance in the first half for the Padres can not be understated; the man is borderline unhittable, and whether the Padres retain or trade him, he will perform.
