LA Chargers Season Outlook: Harbaugh Raises the Bar
Jim Harbaugh’s long-awaited return to the NFL was everything Chargers fans hoped for and more — and bettors loved it, too. In his debut season in Los Angeles, Harbaugh led the Chargers to a 12-5 record against the spread, ATS, mirroring his 2011 breakout with San Francisco when he went 12-3-1 ATS in his first year at the helm. However, history suggests year two could be trickier. Harbaugh’s culture overhaul and his staff — including offensive guru Greg Roman and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter — turned the once-floundering Bolts into a legitimate contender. Can lightning strike twice in the AFC West, a division so tight that sportsbooks have the Chargers’ odds to finish second and third nearly identical?
Offensively, Los Angeles leans on Justin Herbert’s arm and a ground game that got a major facelift this offseason. With Najee Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton joining the backfield and Mekhi Becton bolstering the offensive line, Roman’s run-heavy scheme should have even more bite. Last year’s tenth-highest rushing rate slowed games and opened up play-action. Along with protecting a defense that often feasted on inexperienced QBs.
Even still, the cracks are visible. The Chargers lose Joey Bosa and Poona Ford, relying heavily on Tuli Tuipulotu, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James to hold together a defense that already overachieved in 2024. A brutal schedule compounds the challenge, beginning with a clash against the Chiefs in Brazil and a travel-heavy first half of the year, including seven games in just 38 days. The season closes with a daunting five-game gauntlet featuring Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, and Denver.
Then there’s Justin Herbert. Despite an 11-6 finish in 2024, Los Angeles ranked second in the NFL in win probability after three quarters, only to collapse repeatedly in the fourth. Herbert ranked 25th in accuracy and success rate in close-game fourth quarters, raising questions about late-game execution. The Chargers have the right coach, the right quarterback, and a retooled run game. However, in a division loaded with talent and expectations sky-high, the Bolts will need to prove they can finish games — and a season — as strong as they start.
