Looking Ahead to 2025‑26: Top Teams and Backcourts That Could Dominate March
With summer winding down, college basketball fans are already looking ahead to the 2025-26 season. After an action-packed offseason full of transfer portal moves, blockbuster commitments, and standout summer performances at events like the FIBA U19 World Cup, there’s no shortage of excitement heading into November. From early Final Four projections to underrated teams on the rise, and NIL being a larger factor than ever, these teams have the roster construction to compete come March. Multiple teams have elite roster construction, but what puts other teams in tiers above others is their guard play. Having star guards has proven to benefit organizations and put their teams in a different class than their competitors.
Who is Going to Find Success?
March Madness success has statistically been consistent about one thing: exceptional guard play wins you games. In the past, there have been teams that ended up victorious in March due to their elite guard rotation. For example, in 2018, Villanova had a guard depth consisting of Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Ryan Arcidiacono, and others. Another recent example is the Florida Gators, whose backcourt consisted of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr., and Denzel Aberdeen. Louisville tops the list with the significant talent at the guard position, which is headlined by Xavier transfer Ryan Conwell, Virginia transfer Isaac McKneely, Kennesaw State transfer Adrian Wooley, and coveted five-star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. After Louisville comes Purdue. With the Boilermakers returning the Big 10 Player of the Year, and Big 10 All-First Team member Braden Smith, and international transfer Omer Mayer, Purdue has the guard construction to try and secure that coveted NCAA championship. After Purdue is Houston, where they are reloading after making it to the championship this past season. With returning guards Milos Uzan and Emmanuel Sharp and an incoming freshman class that ranks within the top five, Kelvin Sampson has the roster to make it to the big dance. Having an elite guard rotation has been proven to award success, and just like last year, Florida has the depth at guard to compete in March. With transfers Xaivian Lee, Boogie Fland, and AJ Brown, Florida is towards the top of the ranks in the teams with the top backcourts that could dominate March.
Final Take
Louisville, Purdue, Houston, and Florida headline the teams that have an elite collection of talent at guard. Other teams that are a tier below those are Kansas, Duke, and UConn. Duke’s post-Flagg era begins with the Boozer twins, Cameron and Cayden Boozer, junior floor leader Caleb Foster, and bucket‑getter Isaiah Evans. A top-five recruiting class fills the gaps left by 2025 draftees Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach. UConn’s Dan Hurley kept enough punch after his 2025 Elite Eight run: sixth-year stretch‑four Alex Karaban, downhill guard Solomon “Solo” Ball, Michigan transfer Tarris Reed Jr., plus newcomers Silas Demary Jr. and sharpshooter Dwayne Koroma. It's a roster filled to the brim with experience and size. Lastly, Bill Self’s youth-heavy group in Kansas is built around do-everything freshman Darryn Peterson, plus veteran wings Tre White and Jayden Dawson, explosive guard Melvin Council Jr., and defensive anchor Flory Bidunga, who gives the Jayhawks two-way balance. All in all, guard play is the reason why teams win or lose in the later months of the season. Teams led by experienced guards and defensive-minded players seem to be the ones that have the most success. Houston, Purdue, Florida, and Louisville will be among the teams that are going to make deep runs in March.
