Twins Host Chicago Cubs in Pivotal Series for Wild Card Push

The Minnesota Twins are five games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final wild-card spot in the American League. Not too big of a hill to climb, especially with renewed confidence after beating the Rays in two of three to start their nine-game homestand. The pressure won’t let up with the National League Central leaders, the Chicago Cubs, coming to town on Tuesday for a three-game stint. The Cubs will enter Target Field at 54-36, but the Twins' success against their visitors is crucial for Minnesota to hold a playoff spot by the end of the month. Minnesota has five series in July after the Cubs, in three of which, they play a team that’s 15 or more games below .500, including the Nationals, Pirates, and Rockies. They also play the Red Sox at the end of the month, who are dancing around .500. The Twins should pick up a lot of wins in that stretch, but it’s also the softest part of the Twins' remaining schedule. Looking ahead, the Twins will want to have made up the five-game deficit in the wild card race by August 1st. With teams like the Tigers, Padres, Blue Jays, and Yankees looming in August, the Twins need to move up in the standings now, which is where the Cubs series comes in. A poor series against Wrigley’s favorite team could drop the Twins to seven or eight games back. The three-bottom-feeder series consists of three games each; even a perfect stretch won’t get the job done. The Twins need to maintain a five-game gap in this series to achieve their goal for July, which is to hold the final wildcard spot.

In the series itself, Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start Tuesday amid an excellent stretch. Over his last four starts, he’s pitched 21 innings and only allowed four earned runs. He’s gone five shutout innings twice in that span against the Astros and Mariners. Between those starts, they surrendered just three hits. Byron Buxton, coming off his best game in July with two hits and a solo home run, will be out to prove why he deserved a starting spot for his second all-star nod. His .879 OPS and 20 home runs currently sit at 17th and 12th in the Majors, respectively. As for Chicago, Shota Imanaga will challenge the Twins on the mound in what will be his third start back from a left hamstring injury he suffered back in May. He’s been good since his return, allowing one hit in five innings against the Cardinals, but did allow three home runs against the Guardians, so look for Minnesota to use their power against the second-year pitcher.

David Festa for Minnesota and Cade Horton for the Cubs will start on Wednesday. Neither has been dynamic in recent starts, as both have suffered heavy blows. Horton allowed 13 runs in two starts against the Astros and Mariners, while Festa was battered for eight runs by the Brewers a few starts ago. Yet Horton is coming off a gem against the Guardians, having given Chicago seven shutout innings in a 1-0 victory. Festa, meanwhile, allowed just two hits in nearly six shutout innings against the best team in baseball, the Detroit Tigers, two starts ago. With two pitchers who have shown great peaks but also deep valleys recently, it will be interesting to see who shows up with their best stuff on Wednesday.

Chris Paddack rounds out the starting trio for the Twins in the series. All three pitchers will have to contend with the Cubs' daunting power. The Chicago lineup includes five batters with 15 or more home runs, whereas the Twins only have four batters with 10 or more. Seiya Suzuki leads the pack with 25 long balls, which is good for sixth in the MLB. Kyle Tucker flaunts a .902 OPS to go along with his 17 home runs. Tucker is also an incredibly patient batter with 56 walks. The Twins don’t want to get in a firefight with these guys, but if they do, Harrison Bader will be someone to look to. He’s made it on base in eight of the last 10 games, and he’s mashed three home runs in the last three games. Plus, over the previous week, he boasts an OPS of 1.179.

It won’t be easy against these Cubs, but if the Twins can set themselves up for success in July and grab a wild card spot, then the cavalry can come in by way of Pablo López. Suddenly, the Twins are a scrappy team that’s finally healthy and could make some noise. There is plenty of baseball left for the Twins to cut the difference, with most teams playing around 90 of the full 162 games. The series starts on Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. CST.