Predicting the Xfinity Series Championship Four

The NASCAR Xfinity Series has officially wrapped up its regular season, and now 12 drivers have a chance at a championship. The first six of the seven-race playoff will set the Championship Four in Phoenix, where the highest finisher among the four title contenders will hoist the trophy. While some drivers enter with tons of momentum, such as Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier, others could pull off underdog runs, like Taylor Gray or Carson Kvapil. So the question remains: Who will make the Xfinity Championship 4? Here are my picks.

Connor Zilisch:

This one feels like a no-brainer. After a crash at Talladega broke his back and he was forced to sit out of the Texas race, Zilisch has been on an incredible roll since his return. It wasn’t his only injury, either, as a freak accident in victory lane at Watkins Glen saw him fall and break his collarbone. The No. 88 JR Motorsports Chevrolet has 10 wins, eight of which have been won by Zilisch, while the other was when Kyle Larson filled in and won at the aforementioned Texas race. Zilisch’s nine wins have tied a rookie record; he has won seven of the last eight races and enters the playoffs having won the previous four.

Zilisch won the regular season title over his teammate, Allgaier, and enters the playoffs with 64 playoff points. Entering the playoff opener at Bristol, Zilisch will be 59 points above the cutline, nearly a whole race’s worth of points. A maximum of 61 points can be accumulated in a single race, with one being the lowest. The fact that Zilisch has such a significant point buffer, added with his ability to win races and his string of momentum, makes him nearly a lock to make the Championship Four.

Justin Allgaier:

Allgaier was the closest to Zilisch in terms of consistency and performance, which erased all doubts about whether the 2024 Xfinity champion would experience a championship hangover. Allgaier found victory lane three times in the regular season, tied for the second-most wins in the series with Austin Hill among series regulars. With 35 playoff points, Allgaier comes into the postseason as the two-seed, sitting 30 points to the good. With a top-five finish in 12 of the 26 races, 15 top-10 runs, and 10 stage wins, Allgaier should be able to rely on his consistency to carry him through to the finale. A win somewhere along the way may be the boost he needs to repeat as champ.

Sam Mayer:

One of the more overlooked drivers this season, Sam Mayer, hung around with Allgaier and Zilisch in the point battle all season long. Like Allgaier, Mayer grabbed 12 top-fives and 15 top-10s. Though he didn’t see the checkered flag as often, with his lone win of the season so far coming at Iowa, he still enters as the three-seed with 16 playoff points. The playoff drivers behind Zilisch and Allgaier are much tighter in points, with all 10 separated by 16 points. Mayer goes into Bristol with a question mark above his head, however. He had four straight top-fives before a 16th-place run at Portland and finished 35th at Gateway due to a crash. Should Mayer run well at Bristol, where he finished 11th at the spring race, it should set the foundation for a Championship Four run.

Brandon Jones:

The fourth and final spot in the Xfinity championship is harder to deduce. With everyone being so close in points, and since a few drivers in the playoffs have little to no playoff experience, it may take a veteran to rise above the rest. Brandon Jones has been in the Xfinity series since 2015 and has bounced from team to team, including Richard Childress Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, and JR Motorsports. In that time, he has never made the Championship 4, but I believe that will change this season. Jones is currently in his second stint with JGR, having returned to the team after two winless seasons at JR Motorsports. JGR is where Jones has been the most successful, as all six of his career wins came with the team, including this season’s Darlington win. 

In 2025, Jones grabbed his lone win of the regular season at Darlington, the track he has been the most successful at in his Xfinity career. With five top-fives and 10 top-10s, Jones is a bit of a step behind the other drivers I have making the championship, but JGR has been successful in the Xfinity playoffs in the past. Daniel Suarez won the title in 2016, Daniel Hemric shocked the NASCAR world when he stole the title in 2021, and Ty Gibbs dominated the 2022 season and won the championship. Jones is part of a capable team and possesses the necessary experience to reach the final round. He has to put it all together and make it happen.