The Last Turn Showdown: Forecasting the NASCAR Championship Weekend
This weekend marks the final time the NASCAR Cup, Xfinity, and Truck Series will hit the track in 2025. Four drivers in each series still have the chance to be called a champion, and it will take a near-perfect performance to get it done. The Truck and Xfinity Series both feature a driver with double-digit wins this season, the reigning champion, and two drivers looking for a breakthrough. On the other hand, the Cup Series has a former champ, a long-time veteran, a rising star, and a first-time Championship Four competitor. All will be tested at the flat, one-mile dog-leg oval that is Phoenix Raceway.
Truck Series: Ty Majeski
The main gripe I have with the NASCAR Playoffs is the one-race winner-take-all finale. Nothing about what happened in the previous races matters —neither wins nor playoff points. Last year’s championship was evidence of that. Everyone is reset to zero, and the highest finisher wins, which keeps things exciting but not necessarily fair. This is the case for my pick in the Truck Series. Corey Heim has dominated it all. He has 11 wins this season, while the other three title contenders combined have eight wins throughout their careers and just one win this season. The discrepancy is wide and that will not affect on Friday night.
I’m taking Ty Majeski to win back-to-back Truck Series Championships. He’s been a short-track ace throughout his racing career, and that has translated to the truck series, with five of his six wins coming at tracks a mile or less in length. The last win Majeski had was the championship race in Phoenix last season. I like Majeski to snap that winless streak and become a two-time champ, even though I believe Heim is much more deserving than all three others put together.
Xfinity Series: Justin Allgaier
This pick goes right in line with the last. Connor Zilisch has been the Heim of the Xfinity Series, with 10 wins, 19 top-fives, and 22 top-10s. The one driver that has felt close to him is his teammate and 2024 champion Justin Allgaier, with three wins, 14 top-fives, and 19 top-10s. Allgaier went more than a decade before he finally won his first Xfinity Series Championship, and now that he’s gotten it done once, he will likely do whatever it takes to stay on top.
Allgaier has raced 30 times at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series and has won twice. I don’t expect the other competitors —Jesse Love or Carson Kvapil —to win, but they should be competitive. The title fight will be between Zilisch and Allgaier, and I like the veteran to beat the rookie in what is Zilisch’s only shot at an Xfinity title before he moves to the Cup Series in 2026. It would be fitting for a veteran and champion like Allgaier to end the Xfinity Series era as the champion, as the series will be sponsored by O’Reilly Auto Parts beginning next season.
Cup Series: William Byron
I’ve said before that any of the Championship Four could leave with the cup, but I also said momentum is everything. William Byron kicked the year off with a win in the Daytona 500 and had all season to prepare for this moment. He entered having won the last race at Martinsville, boosting the 24 team's momentum. It’s the third-straight year Byron has made the Championship Four, but he has come up empty-handed each time. I believe the third time will be the charm for him.
The other drivers will have a strong shot as well. Kyle Larson, Byron’s teammate, is the only champion in the group and will be a threat to become a two-time champ. I expect Denny Hamlin to give it his all in search of his first Cup Series title, but I won’t be shocked if he falls short again, like the past 19 years. Chase Briscoe is the wildcard of the group. He’s been strong with his new team at Joe Gibbs Racing, but being that it’s his first Championship Four appearance, I can’t bring myself to pick him this year.
