The Purdy Effect: Are QBs Who Stay in College More NFL Ready?
It wasn’t too long ago that the 49ers found themselves with a quarterback problem. They took a chance and traded up in 2021 for Trey Lance. To acquire the third overall pick in the 2021 draft, they had to give a massive stash of assets. Lance never had time to develop fully due to injuries, and the 49ers were in a win-now situation. Falling back on veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo until he too got hurt, leaving the 49ers with a quarterback they drafted with the last pick of the 2022 draft. This quarterback defied expectations and became the franchise quarterback, eventually leading them to a Super Bowl appearance. So just who is this man, and how did he redefine what teams are looking for in their quarterbacks?
The Man, The Myth, The Legend Mr. Irrelevant
Brock Purdy was all but written off coming into the 2022 draft. Despite his terrible draft stock, he had an impressive resume coming out of college. Purdy spent four years at Iowa State, where he is the best quarterback in program history. Through four years, he finished with 993 completions, 12,170 passing yards, 81 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions. During his tenure as the starting quarterback, the Cyclones posted winning seasons all four years. One thing that made Purdy stand out from other quarterbacks is that he played 48 games in college. It’s unclear exactly why Purdy blew up the way he did, but his experience is definitely one of the factors. Paired with an offensive guru like Kyle Shanahan, it’s a recipe for success. Purdy’s success begs the question: Should teams prioritize quarterbacks who stay longer in college, or continue to draft based on potential?
The NFL's Development Problem
The NFL has had a development problem with early quarterbacks, especially in the last decade or so. The issue stems from teams investing in early draft picks, such as first or second-round selections, to snag a rookie quarterback. The thing is, most teams that are drafting in the top 10 are bad teams, not from a player's standpoint, but from a coaching and front office standpoint. Many young quarterbacks are drafted with the first, second, or third pick with the expectation that they are immediately going to turn the team around. More often than not, teams are left disappointed without immediate results, leaving everyone worse off than when they started. There are so many examples of teams ruining quarterbacks, it's absurd.
In 2025, we finally saw the revenge of the quarterbacks that had been given up on. Primarily, the resurgence of Sam Darnold. Darnold had already begun his resurgence in 2024, but 2025 was the year he finally shed any bust allegations. Daronld was drafted third overall in 2018 by the Jets. A historically bad team, the Jets' coaching situation was abysmal, leading to a trade to the Panthers, who also had a historically bad coaching staff. After spending a season with the 49ers, it had all clicked, and Darnold had been reborn. Unlike Purdy, Darnold only played 27 games of college football, almost half of Purdy’s college career. It used to be that quarterbacks had to sit out at least a year before they could play, but with expectations weighing teams down, it seems that sitting your highly drafted quarterback has become a thing of the past. Playing your rookie quarterback is a detriment to them and their development, as we can see with Purdy and Darnold. Purdy sat out the majority of his rookie season, while the Jets threw Darnold into the fire. There are numerous examples of quarterbacks sitting and succeeding, most notably Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. This brings me to my next question: Can you circumvent some of the important development with a more experienced quarterback?
Bringing it All Together in 2025
Finally, we can use the 2025 draft to hone in on the trend of teams prioritizing quarterbacks with more than 20 games at the D1 level. Starting with the first pick in the draft, Cam Ward. Ward had separated himself from the pack after a phenomenal season with Miami. Ward went on to impress in his rookie season with a talent-starved Titans’ team. Having played 38 games in college, he showed that he could keep up at the NFL level from day one, finishing his rookie season with 323 completions for 3,169 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. All this while no receiver on his team went over 600 receiving yards.
Ward is not the only quarterback to come out of the 2025 draft ready to play. Jaxson Dart, drafted 25th, and Tyler Shough, drafted 40th, both proved that they are franchise quarterbacks, even with both players not playing a full season. Dart played 45 college football games, and it showed. Despite his reckless playstyle, he showed good instincts and an ability to get in the endzone, whether that be through the air or with his legs. He finished out his rookie season with 216 completions, 2,272 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Not a bad start, but when you pair that with his rushing stats, 487 rushing yards, and 9 touchdowns, you have a superstar in the making.
Shough was a surprise when the Saints drafted him. The consensus was that Shedeur Sanders was the number two quarterback in the draft, so when both Dart and Shough went before him, it was obvious that the team valued them more. I won’t let the political side factor into this analysis because it is irrelevant, and the stats of the three players speak for themselves. The Saints thrust Shough in as the starter in the back half of the season with nothing to lose. Getting the start in Week Nine, Shough truly hit his stride in Week 13, when the Saints started their four-game winning streak. Ultimately, it was too little, too late for the Saints, but they had seen all they needed to know: they had found their guy. He finished the season 5-6, with 221 completions, 2,384 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Shough played 42 games in his college career over a six-year career.
Will Mendoza Follow Suit?
The NFL definitely has a development problem for quarterbacks; there is no doubt about that. Cosigned by the GOAT Tom Brady. That’s why the Purdy effect has become so interesting to me. We are seeing more and more players, specifically quarterbacks, play four, five, or even six years of college football. Not too long ago, this was an absurd gesture, as players were trying to get out of college as fast as possible. The introduction has NIL has changed not only college ball but also pro football. I believe we will continue to see more experienced quarterbacks become a priority for teams, as they seem to be able to circumvent the development problem. Recently, we’ve seen Jayden Daniels light the league on fire in his rookie season, and he played 55 games of D1 football. My theory will be fully tested in the 2026 season. The projected first overall pick is Fernando Mendoza, who has played 38 games of college football. A talent-starved Raiders team holds the first pick and is almost assuredly going to draft Mendoza so they can finally lock down their franchise quarterback. The Raiders are coming off a historically bad season, and their future rests on Mendoza sinking or swimming, as he will be thrown into the fire starting Week One.
