Underdogs Who Could Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or
The 2026 Ballon d’Or race has become one of the most unpredictable individual award battles in recent memory. Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, and Lionel Messi remain among the biggest names in the conversation. Still, the gap between the favorites and the rest of the field is far from overwhelming. The lack of one undisputed candidate has created an opportunity for players who might receive considerably less attention heading toward the ceremony. Several underdogs have built résumés strong enough to make a legitimate run at soccer’s biggest individual prize.
That distinction is important because this is not another ranking of the players most likely to win. Our look at the favorites to win focuses on the established frontrunners, while this article examines the names capable of disrupting that group. Some have major trophies, others have exceptional individual numbers, and several produced seasons that could look increasingly impressive when voters compare complete résumés. In such an open race, overlooking the second tier of contenders could prove to be a mistake.
Rodri
Calling Rodri an underdog might seem unusual after everything he has accomplished, but his position in the 2026 Ballon d’Or conversation is complicated. The Spanish midfielder finished the World Cup as a champion and won the tournament’s Golden Ball, immediately giving him two of the strongest international achievements of any candidate. However, injuries interrupted portions of his club campaign and prevented him from building the type of complete season that would normally make him an overwhelming favorite. That contrast between his club season and extraordinary World Cup creates one of the most fascinating cases on the ballot.
Rodri also faces the familiar challenge of being compared with attacking players whose influence is easier to measure through goals and assists. His value comes through controlling possession, breaking up attacks, dictating tempo, and giving his teams stability in the biggest matches. Spain’s World Cup triumph gave voters a powerful reminder that individual influence does not always need to appear on a scoring chart. If voters place significant weight on the tournament’s biggest stage, Rodri could move from underdog to winner surprisingly quickly.
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé enters the conversation with something many of his competitors cannot claim: recent experience actually winning the Ballon d’Or. The 2025 winner remains capable of challenging again after another campaign that included major club success, although injuries and competition from other candidates have prevented him from dominating the 2026 conversation. That makes him particularly interesting as an underdog because voters already know how influential he can be at the highest level. The question is whether his complete 2026 résumé will receive enough attention beside the more heavily discussed candidates.
Dembélé’s strongest argument comes from combining attacking influence with success in major competitions. He may not possess the same World Cup narrative as Spain’s leading candidates or the individual scoring numbers associated with Kane and Mbappé. Still, the Ballon d’Or is rarely decided by one statistic alone. A crowded field can also work in his favor if votes become divided among several more obvious candidates. The defending winner should therefore remain part of the discussion even if he enters the final stretch outside the leading group.
Michael Olise
Michael Olise may be one of the most intriguing underdogs in the entire 2026 Ballon d’Or race. His creativity and ability to consistently influence Bayern Munich’s attack elevated him into discussions that once seemed unlikely when the season began. Olise’s performances have attracted praise for both their quality and consistency, yet he still receives considerably less mainstream attention than many of the established superstars around him. That combination makes him exactly the type of candidate who belongs in an underdog discussion.
The biggest obstacle for Olise is separating an outstanding individual season from the team accomplishments voters often use to distinguish closely matched candidates. Bayern’s failure to win the Champions League weakened an argument that could otherwise have become extremely difficult to ignore, while France also fell short of winning the World Cup. Former France international Bacary Sagna recently argued that Champions League success could have put Olise in position to win the award, illustrating just how highly his season has been regarded. Even without that trophy, his performances make him one of the most credible outsiders in the race.
Vitinha
Vitinha represents another type of underdog because headline statistics rarely capture his influence. The Portuguese midfielder has become one of the most technically accomplished players in Europe, using his passing, movement, and composure to dictate matches from central areas. Those qualities can easily be overshadowed during an award race dominated by goalscorers and globally recognized attacking stars. However, voters looking beyond goals and assists could find an extremely compelling case.
His challenge is similar to Rodri’s because midfield control can be difficult to compare directly with prolific scoring. Vitinha can influence the rhythm of an entire match without producing the highlight that dominates social media afterward. That does not make his contribution less important, particularly when evaluating performances across a complete season rather than a collection of memorable moments. His presence among the power rankings demonstrates why the 2026 field extends much deeper than the handful of names dominating the headlines.
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland is another player who almost feels too accomplished to qualify as an underdog. Yet compared with the attention surrounding Yamal, Kane, Mbappé, and Messi, the Norwegian striker has found himself outside many conversations about who will actually take home the 2026 Ballon d’Or. That does not erase his greatest advantage: very few players in world soccer can match his ability to score goals consistently. In a wide-open race, elite production alone gives Haaland a pathway back into serious contention.
The World Cup also allowed Haaland and Norway to strengthen their international profile, with Norway reaching the quarterfinals before losing narrowly to England. While that run did not produce the defining international trophy enjoyed by Spain’s candidates, it added another significant chapter to his season. Haaland’s candidacy ultimately depends on whether voters prioritize sustained goal production enough to overlook stronger team achievements elsewhere. If they do, dismissing one of the world’s most prolific scorers would be dangerous.
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham has become such an established star that his absence from the very top of the Ballon d’Or conversation can almost make his season easy to overlook. The England midfielder possesses an unusual combination of technical quality, physical presence, defensive work, and attacking contribution that allows him to influence games in several different ways. England’s run to the World Cup semifinals also kept Bellingham competing deep into the tournament. Yet the attention surrounding other candidates has left him outside the group most frequently discussed as potential winners.
Bellingham’s biggest advantage is the completeness of his game. He does not need to dominate one statistical category to influence a match because he can create chances, score, progress possession, win challenges, and contribute defensively. That versatility can become particularly valuable when voters compare candidates whose cases depend heavily on one area of performance. He may require ballots to break in his favor, but his overall résumé makes him difficult to dismiss completely.
Why an Underdog Could Actually Win
Normally, an underdog would need an extraordinary set of circumstances to overcome the established favorites for the Ballon d’Or. The 2026 race is different because there is legitimate disagreement over which achievement should matter most, with World Cup success, club trophies, individual scoring, and season-long consistency all pointing toward different candidates. The World Cup changed the race by strengthening some contenders while making it even more difficult to identify one unquestioned favorite. That uncertainty creates room for candidates outside the most obvious group to make a serious push for the award.
Vote splitting could make that uncertainty even more important as journalists begin comparing the leading candidates. Spain has multiple players capable of receiving recognition, France has several elite names in the discussion, and attacking stars such as Kane, Mbappé, Messi, and Yamal each possess dramatically different arguments. A player does not necessarily need to dominate every category if voters cannot reach a clear consensus around one alternative. That possibility gives this year’s underdogs a legitimate opportunity to challenge the biggest names in the 2026 Ballon d’Or race.
Which Underdog Has the Best Chance?
Rodri stands out as the underdog with perhaps the clearest path toward actually winning the award. A World Cup championship combined with the tournament’s Golden Ball gives him an international résumé that none of the traditional favorites can dismiss. The weakness in his case comes from an interrupted club season, making the amount of weight voters give the World Cup especially important. If the tournament becomes the deciding factor in a close race, his candidacy could become much stronger than the underdog label suggests.
Olise and Dembélé offer different arguments because their cases rely more heavily on what they accomplished at the club level. Haaland brings elite scoring, Vitinha offers midfield control, and Bellingham provides one of the most complete all-around profiles in the field. None enters the final stretch with the same obvious momentum as the leading favorites, but that is precisely what makes them worth watching. The 2026 Ballon d’Or may ultimately be decided by which qualities voters value most rather than which player entered the conversation with the most attention.
Final Thoughts
Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, and Lionel Messi will understandably command much of the attention surrounding the 2026 Ballon d’Or. However, an unusually open race means the eventual winner does not necessarily have to come from the small group receiving the most headlines right now. Rodri, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Vitinha, Erling Haaland, and Jude Bellingham each possess a different argument capable of attracting votes. The closer the leading candidates remain, the more realistic the possibility becomes that one of this year’s underdogs could ultimately leave London with the Ballon d’Or.
