Which Padres Contract Has the Biggest Impact on the 2026 Season?
2026 has been a surprisingly fun roller coaster for the San Diego Padres. As of May 12th, they sit at 24-16, good for first place in the loaded National League West. Playoff appearances have become an expectation for San Diego, and 2026 has shown promise at yet another berth. Since 2020, the team has taken on a new identity, one that strays from the afraid-to-spend bottom-feeding squads of the 2010s. Former owner Peter Seidler tossed massive funds at the Padres, bringing life into a city reeling from years of bad baseball. He did so by dishing out mega-contracts to multiple proven stars. Success has followed the spending, but in 2026 and beyond, some of these deals are looking shaky.
Struggling Yet Valuable:
By far the best contract dished out to any of the Padres superstars is Fernando Tatis Jr’s 14-year, $340 million deal. Tatis signed the deal back in February 2021 off the back of an electric COVID-shortened 2020. The former shortstop was just 22 years old when he put pen to paper. Over the first part of the deal, Tatis has performed well in terms of his annual average value. For example, in 2025, he was paid $20,714,285 million and produced 5.9 WAR, an excellent return on investment. Over the course of the contract, the right fielder has earned three all-star nods, two National League Platinum Glove Awards, two Gold Glove Awards, and a Silver Slugger Award. It is no secret that Tatis has been a slumping star to start 2026, but he is one small adjustment away from outperforming his 2025 offensive production by miles. The only fear on this contract is the back-end. At 35 years old, Tatis will be making $36,714,295 million, yet that's a steal compared to the other deals the Padres handed out.
The Captain:
Manny Machado’s impact on the city of San Diego can not be understated. The third baseman is a future Cooperstown inductee who has completely changed the franchise's trajectory. Despite all the well-deserved praise, Machado’s contract is terrifying moving forward, and cracks are starting to show in 2026. The former Oriole initially came to San Diego on a 10-year, $300 million deal before the 2019 season. He opted out of his initial contract at the start of the 2023 season. Machado was rewarded with a new 11-year, $350 million deal. Thus far, the seven-time all-star has been great, but a slow start to 2026 that has seen him posting an average under .200 through the first month, coupled with regression on defense, is concerning. Machado's contract is violently backloaded as well. 2026 is the last season the former shortstop will make under $39,090,909 million, with the next seven seasons all being payments of that figure. The scariest part is Machado's age. The three-time Silver Slugger Award winner is already 33 and will be 40 years old at the conclusion of his contract. This one does not project well in terms of monetary value, but a player of Machado’s caliber is still wildly valuable to any franchise, especially the Padres.
Yet to Cash:
In 2023, the Padres added to their list of massive contracts tenfold by signing premier shortstop Xander Bogaerts. The Red Sox legend was handed an 11-year, $280 million deal that was a head-scratcher from the start. For starters, the Padres already had Tatis, widely regarded as the best shortstop in baseball. However, the more glaring issue was age. Bogaerts was entering his age-30 season at the start of the deal, and a mega-contract with a $25 million annual average value was not exactly smart spending. So far, Bogaert's contract has not even come close to being of value, with injuries and poor performance plaguing his 2024 and 2025 seasons. The five-time Silver Slugger Award winner will be 40 years old at the conclusion of his contract. Much like Machado, paying that much money for a player of that age does not project well at all. Despite the upcoming horrors, Bogaerts is off to a great start in 2026, posting an OPS+ of 118 through 39 games.
Legend in Twilight:
In 2023, the Padres dished out yet another massive contract, this time to Japanese-born legend Yu Darvish. At the time of the deal, Darvish was coming off his best season as a Padre, racking up 4.5 WAR in 30 starts, yet once again, age made the Padres decision to open the checkbook confusing. The five-time all-star would be 36 years old at the start of his six-year, $108,000,000 million deal. The return on investment has not materialized through the first three years of this contract, and there's reason to believe it never will. Darivsh has posted an ERA of 4.41 from 2023 to 2026. He has also been injured every year of the contract, culminating in an internal brace procedure in 2025, causing him to miss the entire 2026 season. The former Cub is already 39 years old and has already proclaimed a potential retirement. The only reason why this contract is not the most impactful throughout 2026 and beyond is that Darvish has stated he would be willing to void his deal if he does not return, a massive aid to the Padres checkbooks.
Disappearing Ace:
The most devastating contract for the Padres right now is by far San Diego-born right-hander Joe Musgrove's deal. Another instance of the 2023 offseason's insane spending spree, Musgrove was handed a five-year, $100 million extension. The contract made far more sense than the others. The former Pirate was coming off back-to-back seasons with an ERA under 3.20, including an all-star nod worthy 2.93 ERA in 2022. Musgrove also pitched excellently through the Padres' playoff run, helping them secure a decisive Wild Card win against the Mets. Most importantly, he was just 30 in the first year of the deal, making the $20,000,000 annual value a fair amount of cash. Sadly, the cause of issues in this deal has been injuries. Musgrove pitched limitedly in both 2023 and 2024, making 36 starts between the two seasons. He was great when healthy, pitching to a 3.47 ERA in those starts, pitching stellar in the playoffs yet again in 2024. That playoff run was tragically where the deal fell apart. Musgrove was pulled from an NLDS start, needing Tommy John surgery following the outing. Since then, Musgrove has been paid $40,000,000 for zero starts. He still sits on the injured list, with a projected return continuing to be delayed. The Padres would absolutely love to have an arm of Musgrove's caliber in a rotation that currently features multiple starters with ERA’s exceeding five. San Diego looks a lot scarier if Musgrove is healthy to complement ace Michael King. Even if the San Diego-born fan favorite returns to full form in 2027, nearly two years of starts have been lost due to injury.
