Who Has Been the Most Disappointing Player for the 2026 Padres?
The Padres' early 2026 season can be described in one word: tumultuous. The squad started hot, competing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for top spot in the National League West. Now, they sit nine games back, looking like a team scratching and clawing for a Wild Card spot as opposed to a division winner. Overall, the Padres are 38-35. When the Friars played the Dodgers back in May, they had a record of 29-18. The crater has been somewhat salvaged as the team is 5-5 in their last 10, mediocre, yet a vast improvement from their miserable stretch to start June. Much of the sudden record crash is due to their disappointing stars. It feels as if every Padres player with expectations entering 2026 has fallen apart, but some have been far more disappointing than others.
Struggling Mega-Deal
Although his 2025 wasn't exactly stellar, the expectations for Xander Bogaerts still have not been met. The shortstop posted a 2.1 WAR season in 2025, making great strides defensively as he ranked in the 87th percentile of fielding run value. Offensively, there was a lot left to be desired, a theme that has been echoed throughout Bogaerts’s huge contract. The Aruban-born infielder posted an OPS+ of 100, exactly league average. He did steal a career high 20 bases, demonstrating that the athleticism still exists. Through 2026, Bogaerts has been worse than league average in the batter's box, posting an OPS+ of 81 through 69 games. He's been decent as a defender and base runner, ranking in the 73rd and 66th percentile in both aspects, but his batting run value plummets to the 39th percentile. Just a .226 average and a slugging percentage of .342 will do that. His quality of contact has been poor as well, showing that an increase in production is unlikely.
Young Star Fading Fast
Possibly the most shocking sudden fall-off in 2026 is the Padres' star center fielder, Jackson Merrill. Merrill made headlines in 2024, winning a Silver Slugger Award and becoming an all-star at just 21 years old. He took a slight step back in 2025, but was still very productive, posting an OPS+ of 113 with stellar defense in center. However, in 2026, the bat has dropped off a cliff. The center fielder has just a .213 average in 70 games. Beyond that, his OBP is a paltry .277, leagues below his .326 mark in 2024. Much of the struggle comes from Merrill’s brutal chase tendencies. The young left-hander has a chase percentage in the 22nd percentile this season. Resulting in a batting run value in the 11th percentile. Despite that, he ranks in the 93rd percentile for base running value, along with a 72nd percentile fielding run value. Merrill likely figures it out down the stretch; his hard hit percentage and launch angle sweet spot percentage both are in the 82nd percentile. Of all the horribly disappointing offensive performances this year, it is easiest to see Merrill turning things around.
Captain Gone Overboard
Easily the most disappointing performer in 2026 has been the team's captain, Manny Machado. Among all the teams' slumping stars, none is as integral to team success as Machado. So far, the third baseman has registered a ridiculous -0.6 WAR in 71 games. Coming into 2026, there were no clear signs of regression aside from natural age progression. Machado enjoyed a great 2025, earning an all-star nod and a Silver Slugger Award, yet this year his performance at the plate has been atrocious, with an average of just .177. That average is one of the worst marks in the entire MLB. To make matters worse, Machado is getting paid $25 million. The three-time Silver Slugger Award winner’s OPS sits at .615, just a little over 200 points lower than his career mark of .816. He has still been fairly elite defensively, ranking in the 75th percentile in fielding run value, but that matters little when the offense is as bad as it has been. Baseball Savant displays a gloomy outlook on the future, with Machado's underlying stats suggesting a true return to form is somewhat unlikely, although moving forward, if the Padres want to make a true run, their captain has to improve.
