Who Is the Best Back-End Rotation Arm for the 2026 Padres?
Things are getting very interesting in the early-season race for the National League West. In a division dominated by the Los Angeles Dodgers in recent years, two other squads have tested the free-spending Dodgers. On one end is the free-swinging Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that's currently 9-1 in their last 10 games, thanks to the tenth-best team OPS in baseball. The other side of the coin is the wildly confusing San Diego Padres. Instead of relying on a high-power offense, the 31-24 Padres have banked on their “super bullpen” and timely offensive production. Although that formula is showing cracks lately. The Padres are 4-6 in their last 10, courtesy of one of the worst offenses in baseball. Yet even the pitching staff the team so heavily leans on has shown some scary regression. Injuries and struggles have opened spots in the rotation, yet who truly is the most qualified back-end starter?
El Paso and Back
By far the least deserving of a rotation spot is Matt Waldron. Although Waldron has received much fan interaction in recent years thanks to his unique knuckleball, the league has figured it out, and a 14th-percentile average fastball velocity is not doing him any favors. As of right now, the Nebraska native is on the 15-day injured list with a right brachialis injury. When the right-hander is fully healthy, it is unlikely he returns to the starting rotation. The 29-year-old has posted a -0.7 WAR in 23.1 innings for the Padres this year. The negative WAR comes from a paltry 8.49 ERA. Baseball Savant’s underlying metrics reveal no signs of improvement, with an overall pitching run value in the fourth percentile and a breaking pitch value in the first percentile. Barring another untimely injury, it is likely we have seen the last of Matt Waldron in the bigs through 2026.
Shaky Start
Entering 2026, Griffin Canning was a sneaky back-end of the rotation nab for the Padres. With an AAV of just $2.5 million, the deal made perfect sense. The California native was coming off an injury-shortened year with the New York Mets, where he posted a solid 3.77 ERA in 76.1 innings. The consensus was that Canning is a very solid back-end rotation option, capable of posting an ERA around 4.50. Although he arrived in San Diego, he would have to sit out for nearly the first month of the season thanks to the torn Achilles, which shortened the right-handed pitcher's career year in 2025. Since coming off the injured list, Canning has struggled. The 30-year-old has posted an ERA of 7.54 in his 22.2 innings of work to this point. His poor walk rate, with Baseball Savant placing him in the 11th percentile, coupled with his inability to limit hard contact, a second percentile hard hit percentage, is scary, but the former Dodger is far more MLB proven than Waldron. His past success, coupled with the lack of a standard spring training due to his injury, inspires greater confidence moving forward. The right-hander likely won’t be earning any Cy Young Award votes, but it is reasonable to see him finishing 2026 with an ERA in the mid-to-high fours.
Mid-Season Addition
Although it has been only two starts, past performance and an overall lack of competition have made Lucas Giolito the premier back-end arm for the Padres. The Burbank native was signed on April 22nd to replace Nick Pivetta, who was injured. After ramping up with some rehab starts, the former White Sox has thrown two starts for the Padres. He has earned a win in both starts, pitching 10 innings of 2.70 ERA baseball. The WHIP is slightly concerning, coming in at 1.30, but Giolito has already proven an ability to prevent base-runners from scoring. The 31-year-old is coming off an extremely solid 26 starts for the Red Sox in 2025. After missing all of the 2024 season, the 2012 16th overall pick posted a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings for Boston. Despite a good year, his free-agent market was poor, leading the Padres to acquire him in late April. The strong start, coupled with his veteran success, makes the veteran pitcher the easy pick for the star of the back end.
