Who Should Be in the Four First Seeds in the 2026 Men’s March Madness Tournament?
It is less than three weeks away from March Madness, and some teams have proven they have what it takes to win it all. Some are locked in for the tournament, while others need to fight their way for a bid. The bubble watch has also commenced, as conferences such as the SEC have multiple teams fighting for those final spots. Others find themselves in a more comfortable position atop the rest of the country, with some most likely guaranteeing a first seed. The question is, who are those teams?
There are currently three teams that sit above all others when it comes to the top seeds. Duke, Arizona, and Michigan are the big three, all ranked first, second, and third in the country currently. Each is holding strong season records of 26-2, including wins over other heavy powerhouses. The Blue Devils are looking to claim the number one overall seed after a win against Michigan last week showed the country they have what it takes to play in Indianapolis this April. Duke is currently a heavy favorite right now after their recent success this season, defeating Michigan, Michigan State, Florida, Kansas, Arkansas, and a season-sweep of Louisville. All these teams currently sit in the top 25, including four in the top 15. Their offense is led by the 2026 Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year favorite, Cameron Boozer. The freshman phenom has been putting up incredible numbers this year for Duke, which has led to their success. The team will be looking to make another deep run after their tournament got cut short last season after a wild last-minute comeback from Houston in the Final Four.
Arizona has proven to be one of the best squads in the nation with one of the toughest schedules. Defeating teams such as Florida, UConn, Alabama, Houston, and a season-sweep of BYU. It is worth pointing out that four of those six games were on the road in a tough-to-play atmosphere. Their only slip-up this season happened a few weeks ago after they fell short to Kansas by four on the road. Five days later, they would drop their first home game loss of the season to Texas Tech in overtime, 78-75. Many thought this would be the breaking point for the team, that they would slip at the worst time, right before the tournament, but they responded with wins against BYU and then second-ranked Houston on the road. Their tough schedule is not over yet as they still face Kansas again this Saturday, followed by fourth-ranked Iowa State on Monday, before their season closes against Colorado. Even with these tough opponents left, Arizona should be a lock as a one-seed based on its success on the court this season. They will chase the Big 12 crown this year after falling short to Houston in the championship game last season.
Michigan is the final team that is most likely a number one seed in this year's tournament. The Big Ten leaders have taken over the conference with a conference record of 16-1, only falling to Wisconsin at home back in January. Their only other loss this season came last week against Duke in the nation's capital. Excluding those two hiccups, Michigan has taken down teams such as Gonzaga, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue. They face 10th-ranked Illinois tonight on the road before closing the season against Iowa and Michigan State. Another team that has been successful all season with big men all over the court, helping put up high-scoring games for the squad. They are the favorites to take home the Big Ten championship this season after the amount of success they have had when it comes to conference play.
The final number one seed is where the debate truly starts. Near the beginning of the week, the frontrunner was Purdue, which came into the season as the favorite to cut down the nets. Since then, they have had more bumps in the road than most anticipated, which caused them to slide down in ranking. The team right behind them was UConn, who dropped two games in February, with one against Big East rival St. John’s and then another against a struggling Creighton side. The loss to the Bluejays was an indicator that this was not the same UConn team we had seen in the past years, and many were quick to jump on their downfall. How did Dan Hurley’s squad respond? They manhandled St. John’s 72-40 at home in PeoplesBank Arena. This was the fewest number of points scored by a Rick Pitino-led team in his career, which included 24 straight missed field goals in the second half by the Red Storm. This beatdown shot UConn back up into number one seed contention, especially following Purdue’s loss to Michigan State the following night.
The only other team that could be in the conversation is Houston, which has lost its last three straight to Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas. Although they play easier teams to end the season, they may have lost too many to still be in contention for a top seed when it comes to Selection Sunday. The Cougars should still be a two-seed when it comes to the tournament; however, the one seed may be out of reach now. Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and UConn are the current frontrunners when it comes to representing the four regions in this year's tournament. Some are looking for redemption after last season, some are looking for their first big run in years, while others, such as UConn, look to continue their dynasty as they try to make it back to another National Championship.
