‘The Great’ Gets a New Challenger for His UFC Featherweight Belt: Keys to Victory and Predictions

The UFC hosted UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy last night at the 02 Arena in London, England. The main event saw a title eliminator bout between first-ranked UFC featherweight Mosvar Evloev against third-ranked UFC featherweight and England native Lerone ‘The Miracle’ Murphy. Evloev went on to win via majority decision, setting his next fight up against current two-time UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander ‘The Great’ Volkanovski. We’ll go over the likely month and year the bout will take place, along with how the fight will most likely play out based on recent performances from both fighters. 

‘The Great’ last fought in late January at UFC 325, where he and Diego Lopes headlined the card. Volkanovski would go on to win via unanimous decision. The fight never really felt or looked close. He dominated Lopes on the feet, landing the cleaner shots and doing more with his takedowns compared to Lopes. It was a vintage Volkanovski performance. Lopes was able to take him down, however. Volk would need to refine his already elite takedown defense if he wants the best chance at successfully defending his belt against Evloev. The latter is capable of doing more damage on the ground compared to Lopes.

Evloev’s performance last night was quite impressive. While he wasn’t on the same elite level of striking as ‘The Miracle’, Evloev was able to land decent shots and keep pace with his opponent. He felt comfortable enough standing in front of Murphy and trading blows for the first two rounds of their main event, surprising many fans, the commentators at the booth, and even his team of coaches, who were looking for some sort of takedown in the second round that never materialized. He took some big shots from Murphy and ate them like a snack. Evloev was able to land his takedowns from the third round onwards, taking down Murphy at will in Rounds Four and Five. This could have been due to Murphy’s hip injury mid-fight, fatigue, or the combination of the two, but it was still impressive since Murphy had strong takedown defense that held up for the first three rounds. Evloev was also at a scoring disadvantage since he lost a point after landing a second kick to Murphy’s groin. 

Both fighters have fought in the first quarter of the year. Given that Volkanovski is turning 38 in September and Evloev just had his first fight in over 16 months, I don’t expect this bout to take place anytime earlier than September. Volk’s recovery process is only going to take longer as he ages, and Evloev has had a setback of multiple injuries that haven’t allowed him to consistently prepare for fights. It seems more likely that the bout will take place in October, giving both fighters at least six full months of recovery and an ample amount of time for a peak training camp. Here are both fighters’ keys to victory in their upcoming championship bout.

Let’s start with the challenger. Evloev would want to take the fight to the ground since Volkanovski has proven he can handily defeat the best strikers in the Featherweight Division, including Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway, ‘The Korean Zombie’ Chan Sung Jung, and Yair ‘El Pantera’ Rodriguez. While his striking has improved greatly, Evloev hasn’t shown one-punch knockout power on the level of Ilia ‘El Matador’ Topuria. Looking to outland and sting Volk with heavy strikes seems like a recipe for disaster. Unfortunately for Evloev, Volk has also fought one of the greatest grapplers in UFC history in Islam Makhachev. Not only did Volk defend takedowns surprisingly well, but he was able to minimize incoming damage from dominant positions, as well as transition into his own dominant positions against Makhachev, who has a style of pressure grappling that Evloev hasn’t demonstrated since his bout against Aljarmain ‘Funk Master’ Sterling, and even then, the wrestling styles are different. Evloev would need to have his best chain wrestling on fight day and do meaningful work in dominant positions. He should work on striking to set up his takedowns, utilizing heavy ground-and-pound, and evolving his striking game to do meaningful work on the feet in front of Volk.

The champ is up next. ‘The Great’ needs to refine his takedown defense and train similarly to the way he did preparing for the first bout with Makhachev. While Makhachev and Evloev have their differences in wrestling styles and fight at different weight classes, both fighters utilize grappling heavily. Preparing in a similar fashion will be hard on Volk’s body, but it’ll benefit him greatly on the day of the fight. One thing that Volk could also work on in training camp is leading combinations with different strikes. Volk needs to pop in and out of the pocket with combinations, taking calculated chances on the feet while gauging and creating distance between him and Evloev whenever necessary. Giving Evloev different looks would throw Evloev off his rhythm and timing of potential takedowns. Murphy did this in the first two rounds with his bout against Evloev, and it worked really well. 

On paper, this seems like a promising fight for those who love mixed martial arts, not just striking or not just grappling. I expect both fighters to try new things and mix things up early in the first couple of rounds. Both fighters will adjust depending on how the fight goes. ‘The Great’ will probably want to keep the fight on the feet, and Evloev will look to take the fight on the ground. Evloev will try to lull Volk into a false sense of security on the feet in round one, but the latter won’t budge, leading to a more aggressive Evloev in Round Two. Volk will continue to pop in and out of Evloev’s range, frustrating the undefeated challenger in the second round. One small slip-up in Round Three will see Evloev take Volk down, only for the champ to reverse into his own dominant position and lay in heavy ground and pound. Evloev will go back to staying on the feet in the fourth round, catching Volk with a few clean shots before he instinctively goes for another takedown, taking the round cleanly before heading into the final round. Volk does everything in his power to stay on his feet in the fifth round, constantly stuffing takedown attempts and landing stinging blows that slow down Evloev’s forward pressure. I have ‘The Great’ retaining his title for a record-breaking ninth successful featherweight title defense, catapulting Volk as the greatest Featherweight in UFC history.